Vehbi Deger Turan (Metaculus)
Forecasting, real world applications of world modeling with LLMs, formal & semiformal verification, capability evals design, coordination mechanisms, collective intelligence applications, or gradual disempowerment.
Stream overview
Forecasting, real world applications of world modeling with LLMs, formal & semiformal verification, capability evals design, coordination mechanisms, collective intelligence applications, or gradual disempowerment.
Particularly interested in moving theory to real world applications. Especially applications focusing on AI diffusion, labor unions, and technological uncertainty are exciting spaces with lots of opportunities.
Mentors
Deger Turan is the CEO of Metaculus. Before Metaculus, Deger Turan served as President of the AI Objectives Institute, developing Talk to the City, a platform that strengthens communication between under-resourced communities and the government officials serving them. Prior to AOI, he founded Cerebra Technologies, which forecasted shifts in public opinion and demand trends for 300 million citizens; its forecasts were used by governments, hedge funds, and international retailers.
Mentorship style
Once a week 30min-2hour call depending on the needs, meeting in person if in Bay Area/London. Very responsive over Slack.
Fellows we are looking for
Interest in moving from theory to applied work, especially on coordination, negotiation and forecasting. If there are any resources that Metaculus and/or AI Objectives Institute can provide with real world applications that would be a great fit. Formal verification and specification knowledge would be a great match but not required. I am not personally interested in pursuing paper publications, but if the fellow is interested in this, I am happy to support them.
Project selection
I am more interested in the fellow being passionate and excited about the project direction, and for me to believe that I am the right mentor to support them with my knowledge base.
The Winter 2026 cohort offers a wide range of research streams led by experts across AI alignment, interpretability, governance, and safety. Each stream provides its own research agenda, methodology, and mentorship focus.
