战略与预测
战略与预测方向关注先进 AI 带来的长期问题，包括 AI 发展时间线、地缘政治竞争，以及后 AGI 时代的制度走向。随着能力快速提升，人们往往在信息有限、缺乏充分实证或广泛共识的情况下作出关键决定。应对这些挑战需要结构化预测、情景分析、地缘政治建模和宏观战略思维。
- 第一阶段：完成通用申请，提交 1 至 2 份写作样本并回答本方向的简答题
- 第二阶段：回答研究流方向选择问题，并可能需要提供推荐人信息
- 第三阶段：参加面试和工作测试
本方向聚焦宏观战略：理解向先进 AI 过渡的过程、机构与社会如何适应高能力 AI 系统，以及今天采取哪些行动最有助于改善长期结果。有些研究流侧重结构化预测，尤其是对 AI 能力、发展时间线、算力和经济影响开展定量研究；另一些则侧重情景分析与建模，研究前沿实验室动态、地缘政治竞争、国家行为、转型情景和桌面推演。
这些预测与模型可用于分析有哪些政策选项能够影响 AGI 或后 AGI 时代的发展轨迹、这些选项的成本与收益，以及今天的选择如何扩大或缩小未来决策者可用的选项范围。本方向可能研究先进 AI 将如何、为何、何时及在何地推动工业生产、军事战术和科学研究迅速变化，以及这些变化对地缘政治、民主和资本主义产生的次级影响。
本方向的研究员需要能够在不确定条件下进行推断、提出概率性判断，并清晰撰写证据有限的问题。跨学科研究经验或兴趣很有帮助，因为许多问题都涉及社会某个领域的变化如何影响其他领域。以往的优秀申请者来自预测研究、经济学、历史、哲学、政治学、国际关系、计算机科学、安全研究和定量社会科学等领域。
我们会根据契合度为研究员匹配导师，并规划项目，使其在项目结束前产出具体成果，例如预测报告、情景分析、政策备忘录、战略分析和同行评审研究。本方向的成果面向实验室战略与政策团队、AISI 工作人员、国家安全分析人员、长期决策相关的资助方和政策制定者，以及更广泛的预测、治理和 AI 安全社区。
We are interested in mentoring projects in AI forecasting, governance, and strategy. We want to improve the epistemic environment around thinking about AI risk by putting out concrete scenarios, exploring different dynamics and worlds that might happen, trying to forecast how things will go, and sometimes talking about how to deal with the risks. We hope that having better resources for thinking about the future will lead to better outcomes.
We aim to generalize tools for analyzing the dynamics of large-scale agency and power, such as public choice theory, to the setting in which machine minds are competitive with humans.
This stream focuses on how advanced AI could enable new and dangerous bio technologies, and on assessing when risks become tractable or urgent as those capabilities arrive.
My stream focuses on preserving checks and balances as governments adopt increasingly powerful AI. Fellows will work on questions like how Congress can maintain oversight of an AI-accelerated executive branch (including via privacy-preserving AI auditors) and what a positive vision for government AI adoption looks like. Projects will typically produce a public report and sometimes involve engaging directly with policymakers and other stakeholders.
This stream focuses on identifying tractable policy and technical interventions to gradual disempowerment, focusing on economic disempowerment and the intelligence curse. Possible project areas include:
- Formalizing intelligence curse dynamics into a model that can be tracked and monitored.
- More durable policy solutions to mass unemployment than UBI.
- Technical interventions to extend the centaur period.