AI Futures Model: Timelines & Takeoff

MATS Fellow:

Brendan Halstead, Alex Kastner

Authors:

Eli Lifland, Brendan Halstead, Alex Kastner, Daniel Kokotajlo

Citations

0 Citations

Abstract:

This website presents the AI Futures Model (Dec 2025 version), following up on the timelines and takeoff models we published alongside AI 2027. Predicting superhuman AI capabilities inherently requires much intuition and guesswork, but we've nonetheless found quantitative modeling to be useful.

Recent research

Probing Persona-Dependent Preferences in Language Models

Authors:

Oscar Gilg, Pierre Beckmann

Date:

May 13, 2026

Citations:

Interpreting Language Model Parameters

Authors:

Bart Bussmann, Nathan Hu, Michael Ivanitskiy

Date:

May 5, 2026

Citations:

Frequently asked questions

What is the MATS Program?
How long does the program last?