MATS Fellow:
Brendan Halstead, Alex Kastner
Authors:
Eli Lifland, Brendan Halstead, Alex Kastner, Daniel Kokotajlo
Citations
Abstract:
This website presents the AI Futures Model (Dec 2025 version), following up on the timelines and takeoff models we published alongside AI 2027. Predicting superhuman AI capabilities inherently requires much intuition and guesswork, but we've nonetheless found quantitative modeling to be useful.
When Role-playing, Do Models Believe What They Say?
Authors:
Benjamin Sturgeon
Date:
June 25, 2026
Citations:
Inverting the Bellman Equation: From Q-Values to World Models
Authors:
Alistair Letcher
Date:
June 19, 2026
Citations: