AI Futures Model: Timelines & Takeoff

MATS Fellow:

Brendan Halstead, Alex Kastner

Authors:

Eli Lifland, Brendan Halstead, Alex Kastner, Daniel Kokotajlo

Citations

0 Citations

Abstract:

This website presents the AI Futures Model (Dec 2025 version), following up on the timelines and takeoff models we published alongside AI 2027. Predicting superhuman AI capabilities inherently requires much intuition and guesswork, but we've nonetheless found quantitative modeling to be useful.

Recent research

Interpreting Language Model Parameters

Authors:

Bart Bussmann, Nathan Hu, Michael Ivanitskiy

Date:

May 5, 2026

Citations:

Removing Sandbagging in LLMs by Training with Weak Supervision

Authors:

Emil Ryd

Date:

May 1, 2026

Citations:

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